Decision conferencing is a procedure for developing models quickly, based on the knowledge and expertise of decision makers and subject matter experts. In decision conferencing, HumRRO modeling staff meet with clients or designated individuals to structure the problem to be modeled, identify and define relevant variables, and elicit critical information, develop an appropriate model, and recommend the most effective course of action to take, based on the results of the model. A model may be completed over the course of a one or two day meeting. The decision conferencing methodology:
- Is tailored to the specific needs of the client’s problem
- Enables us to tap into the expertise of individuals (vs. archival data) to provide information and data required to build a model
- Gives clients quick feedback recommending courses of actions that they should take
- Specifies areas where additional information is needed to improve the recommendations or predictions of the model
HumRRO has used decision conferencing to develop models to predict leader actions in dozens of situations. Decision conferencing served to set the boundaries of the prediction problem; identify, define, and describe the relevant variables; and estimate conditional probabilities. The resulting models then highlighted the uncertainty, and specified the additional information that could be obtained to reduce any ambiguity.