Special Operations Forces (SOF) have long operated on a simple reality: the operator is the platform. While missions, technologies, and operating environments continue to evolve, human performance remains the decisive factor in mission success. But what happens when missions and definitions of mission success change?
A four-part series, rolling out in Small Wars Journal each week from July 13 – August 3, examines what that reality means for the future of assessment, selection, and qualification (ASQ) systems. Co-authored by David Dorsey, Ph.D., Vice President of Business Development at HumRRO, Michael Ingerick, Business Development, National Security, at HumRRO, along with Col. David Maxwell, USA (Ret.), of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, and Mick Crnkovich of Stratagem Consulting, the series explores how SOF organizations can ensure their methods for identifying and developing operators remain aligned with the demands of the 2040 operating environment.
The central argument is straightforward: The validity of any ASQ system depends on the definition of success it is designed to predict. As the nature of SOF missions changes, the criteria for identifying future operators must evolve as well.
“The future of Special Operations Forces will be shaped by how well we understand and predict the human capabilities that drive mission success,” said Dorsey. “As missions evolve, our assumptions about what excellence looks like must evolve as well. This series challenges us to think beyond current requirements and build assessment, selection, and qualification systems that identify the operators who can adapt, learn, and thrive in the complex operational environments of 2040.”
Series at a Glance
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Part 1, “The Operator Is the Platform” lays the conceptual foundation, examining why ASQ system validity is inseparable from the criterion space it targets, how current SOF ASQ systems are structured, and the key issues that frame the broader discussion.
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Part 2, “The Two Trinities and the Human-Domain Advantage” argues that future SOF success will depend not only on traditional missions such as special warfare, surgical strike, and strategic reconnaissance, but also on the ability to operate effectively in the human domain. The authors contend that influence, indigenous partner development, governance, and support to political warfare are becoming increasingly central to mission success and should be reflected in how future operators are assessed and selected.
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Part 3, “The Technology Layer” explores how cyber capabilities, space operations, AI, and human-machine teaming are reshaping the SOF operating environment. The authors argue that technology does not replace the human at the center of mission success; instead, it raises the level of cognitive agility, judgment, and adaptability required to execute core SOF missions effectively.
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Part 4, “Measuring What Matters” focuses on adaptive performance as a critical attribute for future SOF success. The authors examine approaches for assessing adaptability, judgment, and related characteristics, while offering a framework for identifying when selection and qualification systems have fallen out of alignment with the evolving demands of the operational environment.
The series argues that in 2040, SOF superiority may be defined less by who has the best drone and more by who can interpret complexity and decide under ambiguity faster than the adversary. That starts with selecting the right people—and with asking better questions about what the criterion actually is.
Anticipating the Future
As organizations confront increasingly complex and rapidly evolving missions, the challenge is no longer selecting the best people for today’s requirements but identifying talent for tomorrow’s realities. This series reflects HumRRO’s commitment to advancing the science of human performance through innovative research, workforce analytics, and evidence-based assessment. By helping clients anticipate future demands and align talent systems accordingly, HumRRO is shaping the next generation of talent strategy—because in 2040, the decisive advantage of the future will still be people.
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