Develop a model to predict the impact of economic conditions and personnel tempo on enlisted retention and officer stay/leave decisions

The fact that the United States is trying to accomplish its diverse missions with a smaller standing force is believed to be responsible for strains between service members and their families. These strains are of concern to not only the services but also the United States Congress. The Army's Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel (DCSPER) asked for clarification regarding how the amount of time that soldiers are spending away from their home station (termed personnel tempo or PERSTEMPO) was related to three important Army outcomes: career retention, military readiness, and quality of life.

To meet these needs, HumRRO identified indicators of PERSTEMPO and outcome measures in three sources of Army survey and administrative data. We then developed models assessing the effects of PERSTEMPO on retention, readiness, and quality of life. Results of the analyses indicated a modest relationship between PERSTEMPO and retention. At low levels, increasing time away from home station was associated with higher retention and greater Army career intentions. As the time away increased further, the positive effect was reduced and often became negative. The number of deployments prior to the end of a soldier’s term of service was positively related to reenlistment likelihood, while the average length of these deployments was negatively related. The analyses show little relationship between time away from home station and self-assessed readiness measures. Finally, high levels of PERSTEMPO were associated with several measures of family and financial strain.

These findings place limits on the effects of PERSTEMPO that can be used for personnel planning. They also suggest factors that are important in managing deployments. Finally, they have implications regarding what populations and variables should be tracked to provide early warning of potential problems.